IMPACT OF INTREST RATE DEREGULATION REGIME ON THE NIGERIAN ECONOMY'S REAL (INDUSTRIAL) SECTOR


Content

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Title                                                                                                  Page(s)

Title page

Certification

Dedication

Acknowledgement

Table of Contents

Abstract

Preface

 

CHAPTER ONE

1.0     INTRODUCTION

1.1     Background of the study

1.2     Statement of the problem

1.3     Objectives of the study

1.4     Statement of the hypotheses

1.5     Research Method

1.6     Source of data

1.7     Scope of the study

1.8     Significance of the study

1.9     Structure of the study

 

CHAPTER TWO

2.0     LITERATURE REVIEW

2.1     Introduction

2.1.1  Interest Rate Regulation

2.1.2  The case for Regulation

2.1.3  Interest Rate Deregulation

2.1.4  The case for Deregulation

2.1.5  Financial Sector Reform and Outcome in Nigeria

2.1.6  Challenges of Deregulation to Financial Operators in

          Nigeria

2.1.7  Empirical Literatures

2.2     Theories Interest Rate

2.2.1  The Classical Theory of Interest Rate

2.2.2  The Keynesian Theory of Interest Rate

2.2.3  The Loanable Funds Theory of Interest Rate

2.2.4  The Neoclassical Theory of Interest Rate

2.2.5  The Hicksian IS-LM Framework

 

CHAPTER THREE

3.0     RESEARCH METHOD

3.1     Introduction

3.2     Theoretical Framework

3.3     Model Specification

3.4     A-Priori Expectation

3.5     Identification of Variables

3.6     Estimation Technique

3.7     Restatement of the Hypothesis

3.8     Test of Significance of the Parameter estimates

3.8.1  Standard Error Test

3.8.2  F-Test

3.9     Sources of Data

 

CHAPTER FOUR

4.0     DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS OF EMPIRICAL FINDINGS

4.1     Introduction

4.2     Data Presentation

4.3     Estimated Result

4.4     Interpretation of Result

4.5     Test of Statistical Significance of the Estimated Parameters

4.5.1  Standard Error Test

4.5.2  F-Test

4.6     Summary of Empirical Findings

 

CHAPTER FIVE

5.0     SUMMARY, RECOMMENDATION AND CONCLUSION

5.1     Summary

5.2     Conclusion

5.3     Recommendation

          Bibliography

          Appendixes

 

 


ABSTRACT

The banking sector is quite key to economic growth. More key is the cost of banking as it determines mobilization of savings, level of investment and hence industrial growth. Meanwhile, what is referred to as cost of banking is the interest rate. The nature of interest rate just like any typical price - mechanism is important to economic efficiency, effectiveness and equity. The wide spread notion is that market and price deregulation is a precondition to economic efficiency and prosperity. But market failure in the form of externalities has often proved to be a challenge in less developed countries. Here the researcher has examined empirically the impact of interest rate deregulation regime on the Nigerian economy's real sector; Nigeria being a less- developed country. To do this, qualitative techniques were used in the form of reviewing various relevant literatures and theoretical positions of past researchers and economists of note. Quantitative techniques were not left out. Secondary data were deployed in the form of time-series sample and a model was specified and estimated in the form of ordinary least square (OLS) multiple equation with G.D.P as dependent variable and deposit- rate and lending rate as the independent variables. To evaluate the integrity of the process, the following test procedures were carried out including coefficient of determination (R2), standard error test of significance and test of significance (F-test). From the output of the process, appropriate analysis, presentation and interpretations were made. The work was concluded with a general summary, conclusion and recommendations made.

 

 

 

PREFACE

Here in this study, the deregulated interest rates were examined in relation to the real or industrial sector of the economy.

 

Given this, it should be expected that in a deregulated financial sector:' there should be variegated interest rates that differ from one bank to the other. Contrary to this, the interest rates used in this study as stated in 4.2 (Data presentation) were the industry's averages sourced from the CBN and NBS which, given the nature of keen competition in the banking industry, represent the deregulated interest rates as any significant deviation either from the industry's averages or from that of any service provider, the sensitive elasticity implications of this would mean a substitution effect in line with the laws of demand and supply. Hence, we benefitted from the statistical knowledge of measures of central tendencies and that of dispersion when applied with economic bias to the financial banking sector. Close to this, is that the econometric study did not use the interest rate spread rather made use of differentiated interest rates. Hence, we have the savings rate and the lending rate as the independent variables of a multiple econometric model used.

 

As to the dependent variable used in this econometric study, the G.D.P was used preferably because it was capturing in terms of national output. And this formed the basis why the model estimate was adjudged well fit as stated under 4.4 (Interpretation of results). This is because the coefficient of multiple determination (R2) and the adjusted coefficient of multiple determination (R2) both 0.602 and 0.567 respectively as stated in 4.3 (Estimated results) were used as yardsticks though they were not too strong correlation coefficients with 0.398 and 0.433 stochastic error elements. Considering that the Nigerian economy has been dependent on the oil revenue up to the tune of 80% of the G.D.P hence the determined relation coefficients could be assumed impressive in the light elf the ideal that the industrial sector should be the engine room of the economy.

 

Also, the data used was a time-series data. Furthermore, it is worth saying that the time frame used 1985 - 2010 covered the years of deregulation in the banking industry. Financial deregulation came with the Babaginda-led administration with his romance with the Breton-woods orgariization in the mid 1980s as stated in chapter one. Since then deregulation has been the rule rather than the exception considering deregulation as not total absence of regulation.

 

In conclusion, what had been done with this preface is to state the basic underlying assumptions that are inherent in the data used and the rationale underpinning the interpretation of the estimated result. In short, attempt has been made at the characterization of the data presentation and interpretation used as guidance for the users and readers of the study, in order not to be considered far-fetched and bogus,


CHAPTER ONE

1.0     INTRODUCTION

1.1     BACKGROUND OF THE STUDY

It is widely recognized that the banking industry by the nature of its activities is among the most heavily regulated sector in both the developed and developing economies. As financial .intermediaries, banks assist in channeling funds from surplus economic units to deficit ones: to facilitate business transactions and economic development generally.

 

Interest rate charges by banks were regulated to encourage savings mobilization and ensure adequate investment for rapid economic growth. The existence of market imperfections and externalities in financial markets especially in developing countries has often induced official intervention not only to boost investment, but also to redirect credit allocation within the economy.

 

The deregulation of interest rate in the banking industry involves, the systematic removal of regulatory controls, structures and operational, guidelines which may be considered inhibitive of orderly growth, competitive and efficient allocation of resources in the' banking industry.

 

Financial markets are one of the first sectors of the economy to be subjected to deregulation. The campaign for deregulation of financial markets has been vigorously undertaken in many developed economies. In the recent times, a number of third world countries with heavy debt burdens and dwindling foreign earnings had also adopted policies designed to deregulate their economies particularly the financial markets sub-sector.

Thus has virtually been -carried out as part of comprehensive Structural Adjustment Programme (SAP) aimed at ensuring that market forces are assigned greater roles in the allocation of the scare financial resources.

 

Nigeria as part of the Structural Adjustment Programme (SAP) has commenced the deregulation of its financial system. It was introduced into the Nigerian economy in 1986 during the General Babangida regime. The programme started most earnestly with the liberalization of interest rates trade and exchange rate and the deregulation of the bank interest rate policy.

 

Prior to the introduction of SAP, the banking system was subjected to strict administrative control and the economy was, characterized by serious structural distortions caused by the oil commodity (crude oil) which constituted over 90% of the country's foreign exchange earnings and over 80% of total government revenue. There was an import syndrome which resulted in a high dependence on imports for both consumer and producer goods.

 

To reverse this trend, stringent exchange control and import restriction measures including comprehensive import licensing policy were adopted. But as this crisis persisted, it became evident that the ad-­hoc policies of the past could not bring about the desired change in the economy so, a comprehensive Structural Adjustment of the economy was called for. Hence, the structural programme in July 1986.

 

The overall aim of Structural Adjustment Programme (SAP) was to eliminate the observed distortions in the Nigerian economy. Specifically; its objectives are:

 

i.       To restructure and diversify the productive base of the economy in order to reduce dependence on the oil sector and Imports;

ii.      To lay basis for sustainable non-inflationary or minimal inflationary growth;

iii.     To achieve fiscal and balance of payment viability over the period; and

iv.     To improve the sector's- efficiency and intensify the growth potential of the private sector.

 

With the introduction of Structural Adjustment Programme (SAP) into the Nigerian economy, a great deal of interest has been shown in the activities and developments within the banking system.

 

A central component of the SAP was the restructuring of the national financial system by relaxing some regulations considered inimical for the expansion of the system. The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) was established in 1959 to supervise banks and prevent large-scale bank failures. Since inception, the CBN has played major roles in laying the foundation for the establishment of the Nigerian Deposit Insurance Corporation (NDIC) in 1988.

 

Banks are very important In the economic development of any nation. The banking system as noted by Schumpter (1934) is regarded as a key agent of the process of development. Interest rates were generally fixed by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) within the period white adjustment depends on government sectoral priority till the third quarter of 1986. Thereafter, active interest rate policy started when banks were allowed to negotiate the interests on time deposits.

 

A further deregulation of interest rates occurred in August 1987 when the Minimum Rediscount Rate (MRR) was increased. Also in 1988, the Minimum Rediscount Rate (MRR) was adjusted upwards. The rate of interest increase was moderate in 1990 as commercial and merchant banks liquidity position improved.

 

In 1992, the maximum spread between banks average cost of funds and their lending rates revised upwards. The increase in' banks interest rate was as a result of total deregulation of interest in the year budget. In 1993, the market interest rate continued on an upward trend during the year.

In view of the foregoing, this paper examines the impact of interest rate deregulation regime on the real sector of the Nigeria economy (1985-2010)

 

1.2     STATEMENT OF THE PROBLEM

Within the general framework of deregulating the economy in 1986 to enhance competition and efficient allocation of resources, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) introduced a market based interest rate policy in August, 1987. The decision was not without controversy. While it was gen3rally agreed that low interest rates did not encourage savings, it was feared that high interest rates which were likely to accompany deregulation might retard investment. The deregulation of interest rates allowed banks to determine their deposit and lending rates according to rnar.eet conditions through negotiations with their customers.

 

Interest rates movement can have significant effects on the other macroeconomic variables. The increased interest rate will encourage savings to earn higher returns. Whereas, interest payments form a significant portion of production costs. Increased interest rate could result in reduced investments, output and employment in the sector of the economy.

 

Higher interest rates could result in the deterioration of the current account position of the balance of payment arising from increased cap ital inflows from abroad, pressures on the domestic currency and reduced demand for locally produced goods and services. Both output and employment for the domestic economy would be adversely affected.

 

Higher interest rates can also result in increased higher national debt and a source of more domestic pressures depending on the method of financing new fiscal deficits.

 

On the whole, higher interest rates will tend to reduce aggregate demand, output and employment, while reduced interest rates will tend to have opportunity effects. But in the conduct of monetary policies, these tendencies are not taken in isolation.

 

However, in a free market (deregulated) environment, the interest rate is a potent tool for the policy makers. If it is regarded as a target policy all the indicators closely related to it should be manipulated appropriately to achieve the target.

 

If on the other hand, it is regarded as indicator policy, it only shows the extent to which the authority has been able to attain the appropriate intermediate objectives. Even as an indicator, there must be an acceptable level of the selected interest rate which is linked to the appropriate intermediate goals.

 

1.3     OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY

The broad objective of this study is to examine the impact of interest rate deregulation on the real sector of the Nigerian economy. The specific objectives include:

i.       To show the nature and effect of deregulation' on the banking system.

ii.      To show the role of the banking system in economic growth and development.

iii.     To analyze some of the challenges of deregulation in the economy. and

iv.     To make policy recommendations based on the findings of the study.

 

1.4     STATEMENT OF THE HYPOTHESIS

The hypotheses for this study are stated as follows:

Ho: Interest rate deregulation does not have any significant impact on the real sector of the Nigerian economy.

Hi:    Interest rate deregulation has significant impact on the real sector of the Nigerian economy.

 

1.5     RESEARCH METHOD

In order to examine the impact of interest rate deregulation regime on the real sector of the Nigerian economy, the multiple regression of the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) estimation technique would be used. Primary and secondary interest rates would be regressed on the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) which is used as the proxy for the real sector of the Nigeria economy within the period 1986-2010.

 

1.6    SOURCESOFDATA

Secondary data to be used in this study shall be, sourced from the publication of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) and the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) formerly Federal Office of Statistic (FOS).

 

1.7    SCOPE OF THE STUDY

This work aims basically at evaluating the impact of interest rate deregulation on the real sector of the Nigeria economy from 1985 to 2010. It will have to acknowledge the different views shared by various economic schools of thought on interest rate. The research work will examine deregulation as a concept and how the interest operates within an economy. Also, the analysis of this study is going to span the years of deregulation in Nigeria.

 

1.8    SIGNIFICANCE OF THE STUDY

Various views exist on regulation and deregulation interest rate regimes and its impact on the real sector of an economy. Since 1986 when the deregulation on interest' has been given the attention, it is necessary to investigate the outcomes of the exercise so far. Moreover, the era of deregulation has been for over two decades now, hence, this study is worthwhile and feasible.

 

It would be of importance as its findings shall be useful to research students, business executives, professionals and policymakers in general.

 

1.9     STRUCTURE OF THE STUDY

This research work shall; be presented in five chapters.

 

Chapter 1 is the introduction. It contains the background of the study, objectives of the study, hypothesis of the study, scope and the plan of the study.

 

Chapter 2 shall contain the review of relevant literature to the study.

 

Chapter 3 shall contain the research method.

 

Chapter 4 will contain the estimated results, empirical analysis and interpretation of the results. Chapter 5 shall conclude the research work. It will Include the summary, recommendations and conclusion for the study.

 


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